A UN report this week confirmed that Jakarta has surpassed Tokyo as the world's largest city, with a population of 42 million people. Tokyo, for decades the undisputed champion of urban scale, has been overtaken.
This article was originally published on 21 November 2025 on The Brief at sebsauerborn.com.
Most of the European press ran this as a footnote. It deserves considerably more attention.
The Numbers Behind the Shift
Tokyo's population is shrinking. Japan's birth rate is among the lowest in the world. The country's total population has been in decline since 2011. Tokyo still has extraordinary density, extraordinary infrastructure, and extraordinary economic weight, but the demographic tide is running against it and has been for years.
Jakarta's population, by contrast, is young, growing, and economically active. Indonesia as a whole has a population of around 280 million, a median age of 29, and a middle class that has been expanding steadily for two decades. It is the fourth most populous country on earth and one of the most underrated economic stories of the century so far.
This is not an isolated data point. It is part of a structural shift in where the world's economic energy is located.
In 1990, eight of the world's ten largest cities were in the developed world. Today, eight of the ten are in Asia or the Global South. By 2050, the projection is that only one or two will be in what we currently call the developed world.
The centre of gravity of human economic activity is moving. It has been moving for thirty years. And most Western Europeans are still not paying attention.
What This Means Practically
For entrepreneurs and investors, the Jakarta story is a reminder to look seriously at Indonesia as a market and potentially as a base.
Indonesia is not an easy place to do business. The regulatory environment is complex. Corruption, while declining, remains a factor in certain sectors. Land ownership rules for foreigners are restrictive. The infrastructure outside Java varies from adequate to poor.
But the opportunity is real. A consumer market of 280 million people, increasingly connected, increasingly middle class, and increasingly hungry for products and services that the local market has not yet developed, is not something to dismiss.
The Bali digital nomad visa has attracted attention. The broader investment climate, particularly in technology, logistics, and consumer goods, deserves more.
For those thinking about Southeast Asia as part of a geographic diversification strategy, Indonesia belongs in the conversation alongside the more obvious choices of Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines.
The world is not waiting for Western Europe to notice it. Plan accordingly.
Work with Sebastian
Southeast Asia as a base, market, or investment destination requires current local knowledge and proper structuring. If this region is on your radar, let's talk through what the opportunity actually looks like for your specific situation. Book a consultation.