Venezuela: Between Social Media Rumors and Harsh Reality
Every few months, Venezuela briefly surges into the Western news cycle. A U.S. naval deployment, a new round of sanctions, or the latest corruption scandal sparks chatter online. On social media, especially on X, this chatter quickly snowballs into dramatic predictions: “Regime change is imminent.” “Maduro’s days are numbered.” “The people have had enough.”
But on the ground, in Caracas and Maracaibo, in Barinas and Maracay, life tells a different story. Yes, Venezuela is in crisis—economic, social, and political. Yes, millions have fled. But the idea that the Maduro regime is about to collapse is wishful thinking. The reality is more sobering: the state has entrenched itself, the security apparatus remains loyal, and society has learned to survive in the ruins of what was once Latin America’s wealthiest nation.
And many outsiders wonder: Is this chaos the perfect time to invest? Are assets really cheap? Can I expect huge returns once change comes?
Investment Reality: Not Dirt Cheap, Not Easy
It is tempting to imagine Venezuela as a classic contrarian play—the worse the headlines, the better the long-term opportunity. But reality doesn’t match the fantasy.
Assets are not dirt cheap anymore. The days of bargain-basement real estate prices are gone. In places like Las Mercedes or Altamira, good properties sell for premium prices—often $2,000 to $3,000 per square meter—paid in cash U.S. dollars.
Credit is virtually nonexistent. With bank reserve requirements sky-high and interest rates around 60%, Venezuelans don’t borrow to buy property. Deals are done in hard cash. That means the “easy upside” of a recovering mortgage market doesn’t exist.
Infrastructure drags down value. Paying Miami prices doesn’t get you Miami services. Power cuts, water shortages, and failing transport systems are the daily reality even in wealthy districts.
Political risk dominates. Without rule of law or property security, any foreign investor faces regulatory risk, arbitrary taxation, and potential expropriation.
Could values rise if Venezuela one day stabilizes? Certainly. But that day is not around the corner. For now, the picture is this: expensive assets against collapsing infrastructure, with political risk layered on top. Not exactly the recipe for “easy money.”
The MedellĂn Comparison: Could Caracas Be Next?
Many international investors ask: “Could Venezuela become the next Colombia? Could Caracas be the next MedellĂn?”
It’s an alluring comparison. MedellĂn in the 1990s was synonymous with violence, cartels, and collapse. Yet today it is one of Latin America’s most innovative and livable cities, attracting digital nomads, entrepreneurs, and investors.
But the parallels are superficial. Colombia’s transformation was underpinned by a strong central state, U.S. Plan Colombia support, and a gradual strengthening of democratic institutions. In contrast, Venezuela has hollowed out institutions, a captured military, and a regime that thrives on informality and repression.
Our sources on the ground in Caracas are blunt: “This is not MedellĂn in the 1990s. This is Venezuela in 2025. There is no turnaround story here—only managed decay.”
So while it is fashionable on social media to call Venezuela “the next big contrarian play,” those who live there do not see the ingredients for a Colombian-style comeback.
The Illusion of Imminence
The chatter about imminent change is not new. In fact, it has been a constant feature of Venezuelan politics for the past two decades. Every time inflation spikes, every time the U.S. announces new measures, every time opposition leaders call for demonstrations, a familiar refrain echoes: “This time it’s different.”
And yet, twenty-five years into chavismo, the regime is still standing. The reason is simple: Maduro and his allies have mastered the art of slow collapse. Instead of a sudden implosion like the Soviet Union in 1991, Venezuela has sunk gradually. Hyperinflation, mass migration, crumbling infrastructure—each wave of crisis has pushed people to adapt rather than revolt.
The ruling elite, meanwhile, has ensured its survival by tying the military, security forces, and influential businesspeople to the regime through privileges and illicit rents. As one Venezuelan observer put it bluntly: “Who is going to overthrow a government that is backed by the military making a fortune from selling drugs?”
Everyday Life in the Shadow of Collapse
So what does life look like in Venezuela in 2025? The answer depends entirely on where you stand in the country’s new class system.
For the Poor: Survival, Not Protest
For the majority, life is about survival. Roughly three-quarters of Venezuelans live in poverty. Even after inflation was tamed somewhat by de facto dollarization in 2019, the local economy remains fragile. Wages in bolĂvars are pitiful—often the equivalent of $20–$40 per month—and even when people earn in dollars, prices are pegged to international standards.
In barrios like Petare in Caracas, families rely heavily on remittances from relatives abroad. Venezuela’s diaspora—more than 7.7 million people since 2015—sends back billions of dollars annually, a lifeline for those left behind.
Food insecurity is still widespread. The UN World Food Programme has had to cut its operations by half due to lack of funds, leaving millions with little formal assistance. Ordinary families improvise with what they can find—rice, plantains, cheap chicken—while protein, dairy, and fresh produce remain luxuries.
Power outages and water shortages are part of daily life. Entire neighborhoods go dark for hours, sometimes days. Running water can be rationed, forcing people to store it in plastic containers. Public transport is unreliable, and hospitals often lack basic medicines.
Yet for all this suffering, open revolt is rare. People are too exhausted, too busy keeping their children fed, to organize mass resistance. Emigration has also drained the opposition of its most vocal and active participants. The poor, in short, endure—they do not overthrow.
For the Rich: Life in a Bubble
A very different Venezuela exists in districts like Las Mercedes, Altamira, and Chacao in Caracas. Here, shiny new apartment towers rise, luxury SUVs crowd the streets, and trendy cafes serve sushi and craft cocktails. Yes, Venezuela has yoga studios now.
This “new rich” lifestyle is fueled not by a recovering economy in the traditional sense, but by niches:
Oil rents and corruption: elites tied to the regime and the military.
Entrepreneurs serving the bubble economy: restaurants, gyms, private schools.
Expat returnees with capital: buying into real estate or services.
In these enclaves, payments are often in U.S. dollars, with prices comparable to Miami. A new apartment in Las Mercedes can cost over $200,000; good properties are no longer “dirt cheap.” And since bank credit is virtually nonexistent—reserve requirements choke lending—purchases are done in cash.
The wealthy also insulate themselves from the collapse:
Private generators keep the lights on during blackouts.
Water tanks and filtration systems guarantee clean water.
Imported goods—from Nutella to iPhones—are available for those who can pay.
Private schools and clinics provide services the state no longer can.
This creates a surreal contrast: while most Venezuelans worry about electricity and food, an elite minority practices yoga, sips cappuccinos, and invests in real estate priced in hard currency.
The Role of the Military and Security Apparatus
If there is one reason above all why regime change chatter is misplaced, it is this: the Venezuelan military and security services remain loyal.
Maduro has tied the officer corps directly to the regime’s survival. Key military figures control lucrative state-owned companies, smuggling routes, and oil distribution networks. U.S. indictments and sanctions against high-ranking officials for drug trafficking only deepen their dependency on staying inside the system.
Meanwhile, the security apparatus is vast. Intelligence services, special police units, and pro-government colectivos (armed civilian groups) monitor and suppress dissent. Opposition leaders are jailed, harassed, or exiled. Fear and fatigue sap what little energy remains for street mobilizations.
The Geopolitical Lifelines
Another factor is external support. Venezuela is not as isolated as it might seem.
China buys the overwhelming majority of Venezuelan oil exports, providing the regime with hard currency.
Iran supplies gasoline, diluents, and technical expertise, helping keep PDVSA afloat.
Russia maintains intelligence and security links, giving Maduro symbolic and practical backing.
These alliances are not enough to restore Venezuela’s former wealth, but they are sufficient to prevent collapse. As long as oil keeps flowing to China, as long as Iran provides lifelines, and as long as Russia signals support, Maduro has partners willing to keep him afloat.
A Country of Two Realities
Perhaps the most striking feature of Venezuela today is its duality.
On the one hand, you have the image often shown in Western media: a country in ruins, with mass emigration, blackouts, and repression. That picture is real. On the other hand, you also have snapshots of apparent normality: people shopping in malls, eating out, practicing yoga. That too is real.
It is a society where extremes coexist:
A poor family in Barinas cooking with firewood during a blackout.
A wealthy family in Caracas posting Instagram stories from a new sushi bar.
Migrants crossing the Darién Gap, risking their lives to escape.
Entrepreneurs opening coffee shops in an upmarket neighborhood.
This coexistence is precisely why the regime has endured. Enough people survive, enough elites thrive, and enough outsiders speculate about “stability” to keep the system stumbling forward.
Why Regime Change Is Not Imminent
For regime change to occur, several conditions would need to align:
Mass popular mobilization beyond survival mode.
Elite fracture—the military or party splitting.
External actors shifting strategy from containment to removal.
None of these conditions exist right now. The poor are exhausted, the elites are bought in, and external players prefer a managed status quo to the chaos of collapse.
Instead, Venezuela is on a slow trajectory: muddling through, patching its economy with partial dollarization, letting the poor emigrate, allowing bubbles of wealth to mask decay.
This is not a system on the verge of sudden collapse. It is a system designed to avoid sudden collapse.
Where Else to Look in Latin America
As advisors, we often recommend diversifying internationally—not to chase speculative dreams, but to balance opportunity with stability. Could Venezuela become the next hotspot? Our answer, based on sources on the ground, is no.
If you want exposure to Latin America, there are other markets that combine risk with genuine opportunity:
Colombia: Despite security challenges, MedellĂn and Bogotá offer a deep rental market, growing tech sector, and more predictable institutions than Caracas.
Mexico: Benefiting from nearshoring, Mexico is drawing foreign manufacturing and real estate demand—especially in Monterrey and along the U.S. border.
Paraguay: Still under the radar, Paraguay offers low taxes, cheap energy, and relatively affordable land—attracting agribusiness and logistics investors.
Uruguay: Politically stable, investor-friendly, with strong property rights. Real estate in Montevideo and Punta del Este remains attractive for long-term wealth parking.
Panama: Dollarized, strategically located, and still offering opportunities in logistics and financial services.
Compared to these, Venezuela is not an opportunity—it is a mirage.
Conclusion: A Country in Limbo
On social media, it is tempting to talk about dramatic change. It makes for good headlines, good engagement, and good hope. But for those who actually live in Venezuela—or have watched it closely for decades—the picture is different.
Venezuela is not about to explode. It is not about to transform overnight. It is a country in limbo, where the majority survives on remittances and coping mechanisms, while a minority thrives in bubbles of privilege.
The tragedy is not that regime change is imminent and being missed—it is that regime change is not imminent at all.
Until the military fractures, until the external lifelines dry up, until Venezuelans themselves see an alternative worth risking everything for, the reality will remain: the Maduro government is secure, society is exhausted, and the slow collapse continues.
Consultation & Next Steps
If you are considering diversifying your wealth internationally, looking at Latin America as part of your strategy, or simply wondering which countries actually offer opportunity and which are only risk, then it’s time to speak with us.
We have been following developments in Venezuela for years and are in regular contact with people on the ground. Our clear assessment: for foreign investors, Venezuela is not a hotspot right now—it’s a minefield.
But there are other countries in the region – from Mexico to Paraguay to Uruguay – that genuinely offer opportunities if approached the right way.
Book a personal consultation and we’ll discuss with you:
Which countries fit your specific goals
How to structure things for tax efficiency
How to limit risks while positioning yourself for real upside
